【2025年04月18日訊】《中產必須死》一書作者高天祐今天在《信報》撰文指出,隨著美中關稅衝突升級,中國年輕人本已嚴峻的就業壓力正被進一步放大。他引用專家觀點提醒,當局不能美化「吃苦精神」,更不能把普通百姓當成「炮灰」。
中國人民大學經濟系教授聶輝華,近日接受自媒體「真故研究室」採訪時表示,美國是全球最大「買主國」,其關稅政策對中國出口型經濟的影響難以避免。他強調,「去美國化」或「徹底脫鉤」不現實,更呼籲政策層面避免情緒化操作。
他特別點出一種流行說法——「中國人能吃苦,就能熬贏美國」,其實站不住腳。他反問:「你熬不住,不代表別人熬不住。你的目標是熬死別人,還是讓自己過得好?」
他警告,不能用「苦難者」框架,把百姓變成戰略代價。他認為,就業和青年問題才是當務之急,「就業穩,國家才穩;青年穩,就業才穩。」
高天祐在文中還指出,中國去年對美出口高達5247億美元,占出口總額的15%。考慮轉口因素,對美出口可能超過兩成。外貿行業直接或間接創造了超過兩億就業崗位,約占全國就業的四分之一,其中包括八千多萬農民工。美國市場的重要性不言而喻。
但最新一輪關稅下,已有不少工廠傳出減產、裁員消息。在抖音、脈脈等社交平台上,不少工人反映廣東、福建、浙江等地的訂單銳減,崗位被削減,部分人已失業。
國家統計局數據顯示,今年2月,16至24歲青年失業率已攀升至16.9%。教育部預估,今年高校畢業生人數將創下1222萬新高,「畢業即失業」的擔憂正在擴散。
針對當前局勢,聶輝華給年輕人提出四點建議:
一是「生存優先」,別只盯著短期利潤;
二是要有「備胎方案」,避免孤注一擲;
三是「適時撤退」,降低預期、保守應對;
四是「少借債,多儲蓄」,以防未來風險。
聶輝華強調,在當前經濟下行的背景下,個人命運難免被大勢裹挾。他鼓勵年輕人先求生存再謀發展。他說,只有整體經濟回穩,青年面臨的「壓力山大」才可能真正緩解。
中美貿易戰下中國年輕人的困境,引廣泛關注。
《新聞直擊》製作組
責任編輯:孫芸#
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ANSHUN, CHINA - DECEMBER 16: (CHINA OUT) 'Left behind' child Luo Gan,10, watches as his grandfather Luo Yingtao,64, carries hay as they do chores on December 16, 2016 in Anshun, China. Like millions of Chinese children, the four Luo siblings are being raised by their grandparents in rural China as their parents left to find work in urban areas. While there are no official figures, a recent government report puts the number of 'left behind' children at nearly 10 million, though child welfare experts estimate the number to be closer to 60 million. In the case of the Luo grandparents, who are elderly and poor, they do what they can to meet the basic needs of four children between the ages of 5 and 11. Local schools, educators and community charities often try to the fill the gaps. Still, many children feel the absence of interaction with their mother and/or father, creating a generation of lonely kids who experts worry may be prone to anxiety, poor school performance, and depression. Joining parents in the city is not usually an option, as China's hukou documentation system dictates that education and health care are accessible only in the district where a child is born and registered. China's government says it is making child welfare a national priority, and will work to improve support to 'left behind' children after launching its first-ever national census to assess the problem. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
大陸民眾表示,農村很苦,別信共產黨的「脫貧」謊言。示意圖。(Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
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